Colts head to H-Town
21 NOV 2019
Colts @ Texans
Everything is bigger in Texas… including this matchup. It’s going down in H-Town BIG TIME. The Colts are coming off their largest victory of the season as the Texans are coming off their worst loss of the season. The last time these two AFC South juggernauts was exactly a month ago on October 20, 2019 in Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana). Jacoby Brissett & the Colts ended up beating Deshaun Watson & the Texans 30-23. That one game has the Colts on top of the AFC South. Thursday is a huge game as both rivals are not playing just to win… they are playing for a spot in January. Here’s the rundown for Thursday Night’s nail-biter.
Matchups
The Texans & the Colts have formidable matchups against one another across the board. Here’s a statistical breakdown of both teams. First up, offenses.
OFF. Stats
Based on what we see here, the Texans & Colts are neck to neck when it comes to the ground game. On the contrary, when it comes to the aerial attack, the Texans edge the Colts slightly. Sure, the Texans are coming off their worst offensive performance in the Deshaun Watson era but Thursday yields as a statement game. This is the same Texan offense that is ranked 5th in the league when it comes to the rush & if they want to air it out, Deandre Hopkins isn’t a bad option… yes that was sarcasm. Regardless of their road woes last week, the Texans offense has the fewest three-and-outs (10) & the lowest three-and-out percentage (9.5%) in the league. The Colts offense is going to have a tough time keeping up with them…
Offensively, the Indianapolis Colts are the most recent team to fall victim to injuries. The 4th best rushing offense in the league is going to take a step back with the loss of running back Marlon Mack. This leaves the 21st ranked (YPG) Colt offense in the wind as they will be one-dimensional having to rely on Jacoby Brissett & the 27th ranked aerial attack! If they want a more legitimate shot at winning, they are going to need some help from their defense. On the contrary, the Houston Texans could potentially get WR, Will Fuller & CB, Bradley Roby who have been listed as game-time decisions heading into Thursday Night’s matchup. If at least one of the two guys can play on a short week, this would greatly benefit an already good Texan team.
Here’s the statistical breakdown for both defenses based off how many YPG (yards per game) they allow to opposing offenses.
DEF. Stats
Some better looking stats for the Colts comes on the defensive side of the ball. They allow fewer YPG against both the pass & rushing attack. Unfortunately, they will be going up against the better offense Thursday night. Yes, the Texans are coming off their worst loss of the season, however, I wouldn’t dwell too much on their offensive struggles as the Texans have averaged nearly 26 PPG at home this season. Bodes well for them as Indianapolis is allowing nearly 22 PPG on the road this season…
The PRESSURE is ON.
Words doesn’t do justice for how big of a regular season matchup this is. Both the Colts & Texans know the division is well up for grabs on Thursday night & quite frankly the team that wins this matchup is taking the AFC South, securing themselves a spot in January football. On the contrary, the losing team would likely miss the playoffs! (if you want to read more about the playoff scenarios it will be after the game pick).
Based on the statistics & reasoning laid out, I simply don’t see the Texans getting swept by the Colts this season. They have a respectable defense & I expect the Colts to keep things close as they have the smallest margin of defeat in the AFC this season (4.75 PTS). On the contrary, Deshaun Watson has a career record of 11-4 at home. It’s too appealing of a stat to ignore in this big of a divisional matchup. To put the cherry on top, checkout how the Texans have responded after a loss this season....
If this trend continues, the Texans are primed to respond with a W on Thursday night to kickoff Week 12 of the NFL’s 100th season. Besides a little shakeup in the playoff picture is always fun!
Score: 27-23, Texans Win.
BONUS: Playoff Implications
Here are your short time scenarios as 6 weeks is more than enough time for rankings to fluctuate in a tightly packed AFC.
The winner of this game will stay put as the 3rd seed in the AFC playoff picture. Loser (depending on who it is) will have several different scenarios.
If the Colts lose: they will drop to the 7th seed & if a Steeler victory was to happen on Sunday, the Colts would then get bumped down to the 8th seed (lose tiebreaker vs. Steelers) heading into week 13. A Raider win on Sunday would still leave them as the 7th seed. Something to note is that a Raider win of any kind will be deadly for the Colts if they were to lose Thursday Night’s matchup as they do not have tiebreaker vs. Raiders. Of course they can stay the 3rd seed with a W on Thursday night vs. Houston.
If the Texans lose: they will tentatively drop one spot down to the 7th seed. They will have to wait until Sunday for the Raiders to play. My prediction is that the Raiders will win this week vs. Jets. This would give the Raiders a 7-4 record compared to the Texans 6-5 record. Week 13 is going to be BIG as the Texans play the Patriots. If a loss against the Colts was to happen, the Patriots coming to town next week is not the most favorable matchup in what would look like a must win game. The reason that it would be a must win game is based on the Raiders & Chiefs record. The Raiders will likely lose to the Chiefs in arrowhead in Week 13 & a Texans victory over the Patriots in week 13 would give both the Raiders & Texans a record of 7-5. The Texans have tiebreaker giving them the edge here. However, something to possibly keep in mind is the scenario where the Raiders somehow upset the Chiefs & the Texans still get a win against the Patriots. This would then tie the Texans & Chiefs record which would bump the Texans up to the 6th seed. Now hypothetically, if the Chiefs were to lose on the road against the Patriots in week 14, dare I say it… they will be on the outside looking in heading into Week 15.
That is a busy (short term) rundown of the AFC playoff scenarios based on the Texans & Colts matchup. Just be ready for anything to happen.
