Wild WIld West
17 OCT 2019
Week 7 kicks off with an AFC West divisional matchup between the Chiefs who have lost their last two & the Broncos who have won two straight. It will be Mahomes’ first matchup against a Vic Fangio’ defense. Although the Chiefs could look like clear-cut favorites in this divisional matchup, the Broncos pose a very unique threat…
Opposites Attract?
Both the Chiefs offense (3) & Denver defense (4) ranks in the top 4 of their respective units. On the contrary, the Broncos offense (8) & Chiefs defense (6) both rank in the bottom 10 of the league!
Chiefs OFF. vs Broncos DEF.
Broncos OFF. vs Chiefs DEF.
Unfortunately, the Denver Broncos lost sophomore season pass rusher, Bradley Chubb to a season ending ACL tear. He could’ve played a huge role in this teams success down the stretch, however, Fangio has adjusted to life post Chubb on the defensive side of the ball as the Broncos have won 2 straight in the 23-year olds absence. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes & the Kansas City Chiefs have looked… well, beatable.
Stats don’t lie! Is there a reason to have serious concern at Mahomes’ overall stats? No absolutely not. However, if you are going up against a Fangio coached defense, being two-dimensional AS A PASSER is important. This starts off with the Chiefs offense helping Mahomes out a bit. Sounds weird right? The reigning NFL MVP needs help from an offense that runs through him. It’s not entirely crazy!
Mahomes Play Action Pass Stats
His 127.8 Passer Rating when incorporating the Play Action Pass kept defenses on their toes through the first 4 weeks which certainly propelled the Chiefs to a 4-0 start to the season. On the contrary, in his last two weeks, when the Chiefs offense chooses to run “Play Action Pass” his stats have dropped to 0 TD/0 INT with 5.7 YPA (yards/attempt) & 68.9 Passer Rating. The Chiefs record? 0-2. If the Mahomes wants to see his stats improve when running play-action passes, a ground game would have to be established. That doesn’t look too promising as the Chiefs are Avg. a mere 82.7 Rush YPG.
Game Pick
Clearly there is serious concern if you are a Chiefs fan… no, not because of the alarming play-action pass statline, but because of two straight home losses & now taking on a red-hot Bronco team. Sounds like a tougher matchup than you’d think.
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
I’m going to go with a shot in the dark this week. Perhaps one of the biggest upsets of the year. The Broncos win their 3rd consecutive game as the Chiefs lose 3 straight. This means that Mahomes' 2-5 record in primetime games will drop to 2-6 after Thursday Night's loss.
If Von Miller & the Broncos defense can contain Mahomes’ rocket arm for a majority of the game, I trust the Broncos offense to attack the Chiefs at their Achilles heel… stopping the run. The Chiefs have the 3rd worst run defense in the league giving up 161.8 Rush YPG! Without Chris Jones on the defensive line, going up against a top-14 Bronco’ 1-2 punch led by 2nd-year stud, Philip Lindsay will ride Orange Crush to victory. Expect a Thursday Night thriller with Week 7 being the 5th Bronco game of the season to be decided by one possession or less.
