The Divisional
11 JAN 2020 GAMES
Vikings @ 49ers
6 years. It’s been 6 years since the 49ers played postseason football. 7 years since hosting one! Minnesota is coming off a fairy tale win against the New Orleans Saints & quite frankly, Kirk Cousins has silenced everyone… including myself.
Both Garoppolo & Kirk head into Saturday’s matchup with near identical stat lines. In fact, Captain Kirk edges Garoppolo slightly, especially when it comes to playing “keep away”. Here’s a look at the two-signal callers stat lines.
QB STATS (incl. Playoffs)
Sure, Kirk Cousins’ stats could look better as he has played in 1 more game thus far. However, a mere 1 TD pass is not going to sway this QB matchup. On the contrary, Jimmy Garoppolo’s 13 INTs are a problem compared to Kirk Cousins’ 6 INTs. Fortunately for Jimmy Garoppolo & the 49er’ offense, the Vikes’ secondary ranks 15th in the league allowing 233.6 Pass YPG. On top of that, Emmanuel Sanders or George Kittle could draw Xavier Rhodes’ attention who has allowed an 83.8 CMP% in coverage this season, the 2nd highest by any CB in a season since 2015 (incl. playoffs, Min. 50 targets).
Chuck Cook -USA TODAY Sports
On top of that, Kirk Cousins will have to take on the #1 pass defense which will make this Viking’ offense one-dimensional for the most part. Quite frankly, Dalvin Cook could see a favorable matchup against a 49er’ rush defense that has allowed a 112.6 Rush YPG to opposing backs. One of the more wilder stats is the Vikings 40-0 record when Dalvin Cook carries the ball 30+ times. In fact, the Vikes have won 5 straight when both Dalvin Cook & Adam Thielen have played (34.6 PPG, 429.4 total YPG).
Regardless, I’ll take the 49ers in this game as their offense is simply good enough to put points on the board along with a defense that can thwart opposing offenses from scoring. Interestingly enough, the 49ers have won 4 of the 5 prior playoff matchups vs Vikings (all in NFC Divisional Round). The 49ers are primed to host an NFC Championship game for the first time since January 2012!
Score: 31-23, 49ers Win.
Titans @ Ravens
This game is going to be fairly low scoring. I’m just putting that out there as I expect A LOT of running plays with good reason. The Ravens lead the league in rushing with 206 rush YPG! Meanwhile, the Titans offense ranks 3rd in the league when it comes to running the football with 138.9 Rush YPG. Yes, the Ravens clearly have a better ground game than the Titans, however, Ryan Tannehill could elevate this Titan offense…
Getty Images/Ringer illustration
A mere 14 points scored on offense with only 15 pass attempts & 34 carries by Derrick Henry looked like the winning formula… last week. The Titans have averaged 30.4 PPG with Ryan Tannehill under center this season. On top of that, Ryan Tannehill has excelled vs man coverage this season (League-high 15 TD & a mere 3 INT). The Ravens have played man coverage on 45.8 pct of coverage snaps…
Don’t let that stat line deter you from the Ravens having allowed a mere 16.7 PPG during the postseason (fewest among all teams since 1996). It’s going to come down to a numbers game. The Ravens are simply too high powered of an offense for the Titans to handle. Pair that up with a top-5 Rush defense & you got a win! The Ravens flock is set to host an AFC Championship game…
Score: 26-17, Ravens Win
12 JAN 2020 GAMES
Texans @ Chiefs
The perfect Wild West battle for a spot in the AFC Championship game. Two of the games brightest stars go head to head at noon on what looks like a chilly Kansas City day. Patrick Mahomes & the Chiefs are seeking revenge. Not only on the Texans but simply for themselves. Nearly a year ago, the Kansas City Chiefs suffered a heartbreaking loss at home to none other than Tom Brady & the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.
This Sunday, the leagues reigning MVP is leading his troops in Arrowhead with a chip on his shoulder. A chip that will not go away until a Lombardi Trophy comes to Kansas City…
What looks like a favorable matchup for the Chiefs to advance to their second consecutive AFC Championship game. Sure, the Texans are coming off a historic 16 point comeback against the Buffalo Bills… however, it’s concerning that the Texans were in fact losing 16-0 at a point in time… to the Bills. This week, Mahomes & the Chiefs high-powered offense is not going to slow down or shy away from the Texans defense. Keeping them in check is going to be tough especially after last weeks’ first-half outing.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
On top of that, the Texans have never won multiple games in a single postseason! I’d expect that to remain true as I simply do not see the Texans notching a road playoff win against the Chiefs. Especially with the way the Chiefs’ defense has played off late. Since Week 11, the Chiefs have held starting QBs under a 100.0 passer rating in 6 straight games & have allowed a mere 11.5 PPG. With a well rested Kansas City team coming off a bye, Andy Reid looks to stay perfect in the postseason when awarded a first-round bye. I’ve got Kansas City headed to Baltimore in what looks like a trip to Super Bowl 54.
Score: 27-23, Chiefs Win.
Seahawks @ Packers
Dread it. Run from it. The Packers can finally catch the break that they have needed all season long. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. I’ll blatantly say it… the Packers are the WEAKEST 13-win team in the league right now. The Packers have the worst scoring (23.5 PPG) and total offense (345.5 YPG) among teams remaining in the playoffs! Fortunately, with new head coach Matt LaFleur, they feed Aaron well… Jones not Rodgers! Yes, I get it Green Bay has struggled to put up points however, with a defense that keeps games close, the Packers have been winning ugly to a 13-3 record.
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
On the contrary Seattle has their own issues. Russell Wilson has more INT (10) and a lower passer rating (74.0) vs Packers than any other team in his career (incl. playoffs). On top of that, he is 0-3 at Lambeau Field. Playing January football is not the most ideal time to pick up a win against a well rested Packer squad… Besides, the home team has won each of the previous 3 playoff matchups between the Seahawks & Packers.
There’s no reason why that trend would not continue, especially with a Packer team that has not lost at home since September! I’m sending the Hawks’ home as the Packers travel out west to take on a well-rounded 49er’ squad.
