Into the Wild
AFC Wild Card Games 3 JAN 2020
Bills [5 seed] @ Texans [4 seed]
Everything is bigger in Texas. That includes the expectations for Houston this season. I’m going to be frank with you… this is one of the most evenly matched games of the NFL’s 100th season. No better time for this matchup than Wild Card weekend!
Houston is fond of the postseason as they have won the AFC South in 4 of their last 5 seasons. However, only 1 playoff win in that span has not been the most convincing stat! On the contrary, both signal-callers are in uncharted territory. Bills’ Josh Allen is set to make his first playoff start as Deshaun Watson is set to make his second consecutive playoff start. Yet both quarterbacks seek their first playoff win…
QB Comparison
The breakdown of this game pick features an even match up across the board. The key matchup of this game is going to be DeAndre Hopkins against Tre'Davious White. Hopkins has struggled in his 4 career playoffs as he has fewer than 7 receptions & fewer than 70 receiving yards in each of those playoff games. That bodes well for Bills’ Tre'Davious White who is the only CB in the NFL with 60+ targets to not allow a TD this season per PFF. However, DeAndre Hopkins has worked out of the slot about 30% of the time as Tre'Davious White has played a mere 3.8% of his snaps in the slot. With Will Fuller unlikely to play, Hopkins could see an increase in the number of plays he runs out of the slot. The barring question heading into this matchup is if Tre'Davious White will shadow Hopkins for a majority of the game. Regardless, I expect Watson to still feed Hopkins as the third year signal-caller is 5-0 in his career against teams to finish a season ranked top 5 in pass defense (BUF: 4th this season).
As for the Bills offense, scoring has been an issue off late… Buffalo has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their final 4 games! Josh Allen & the Bills are set to take on a Texan team that will now have JJ Watt back who suffered a torn pectoral in October. Watt offers a HUGE boost to a Texans defense that ranks dead last among playoff teams when it comes to allowing total YPG (388.3 YDS). However, the Bills offense has averaged 19.6 PPG and 330.2 total YPG this season (both fewest among playoff teams). Something to watch out for is the Buffalo running game as Bills’ David Singletary has seen 60% of his runs outside of the tackles. The Texans were the worst team in the league when it came to stopping opposing backs outside of the tackles, giving up 6.9 YDS/Carry. Then Again the Texans were without JJ Watt who is going to help mitigate the Bills run game.
Despite the Bills success this season, it’s tough to see the Texans lose yet another home playoff game! Expect H-Town to move on to the divisional round for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the Bills have a great looking future ahead of them with a promising young roster.
SCORE: 26-23, Texans Win.
Titans [6 seed] @ Patriots [3 seed]
Imagine you are working at a job & your boss awards you the first week of the year off for a decade due to your hard work throughout the previous year. All of a sudden in the 11th year, you don’t get a week off. Why? Because you underperformed that year. This ladies & gentleman is a rundown of Tom Brady & the New England Patriots. A first-round bye is something Belichick & Brady are far too fond off. The Patriots playing on Wild Card weekend is like the “Pineapple on Pizza” debate! Does it really belong there?
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
On the contrary, the Titans do belong here. They deserve to play January football with good reason. Since Ryan Tannehill has taken the reigns in Tennessee (Week 7), the Titans have averaged 30.4 PPG (3rd-most in NFL in that span). In that same span, Ryan Tannehill has notched a career-high 117.5 passer rating this season (highest in NFL). This week he takes on a Patriot’ secondary that has allowed a 62.8 passer rating to opposing QBs (lowest in NFL). Although the Patriots secondary could have the edge simply because they are coached by Belichick, Tannehill offers a formidable matchup.
Nancy Lane/BH
I got the defending champs coming out on top in this matchup. In case you haven’t noticed, winning is Tom Brady’s thing! The Patriots have a 147-28 (.840) home record in the Tom Brady era, including playoffs (highest home win pct in NFL since 2001). Interestingly enough that this game is on a Saturday makes a difference! The Patriots have a record of 10-1 in Saturday playoff games in the Bill Belichick era… Expect that to become 11-1 after what looks to be Josh McDaniels final home game with the Patriots as their offensive coordinator.
SCORE: 24-17, Patriots Win.
NFC Wild Card Games 4 JAN 2020
Vikings [6 seed] @ Saints [3 seed]
“We need a Minneapolis Miracle” that’s the theme of this matchup. The Vikings truly need a miracle in New Orleans. In 2017, after replacing an injured Sam Bradford, Keenum led the Minnesota Vikings to a 13-3 record in a season to remember. A season that included one of the greatest plays in NFL history. The “Minneapolis Miracle”.
10 seconds left at the Viking’ 39-yard line… Case Keenum heaved a 25-yard pass to Stefon Diggs who caught the ball the Saints’ 35-yard line. With nothing but greenery in Diggs’ sight, he let his legs take care of the rest. A 61-yard TD stunned the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round as the Vikings advanced to the NFC Championship game against the Eagles. Keenum went on to take on former teammate, Nick Foles in what would end in Foles leading Philly to the promised land as Keenum was set to become a free agent. In came Kirk Cousins the following offseason who is now set to make his first playoff start as a Viking.
I’m not going to sugarcoat this matchup. The Saints are winning this football game. Time after time, from a “Minneapolis Miracle” to the “Call heard round’ the league” the Saints have simply not caught a break in the playoffs. A home playoff win on Wild Card weekend will certainly set the tone for this team going forward. One matchup that is going to single-handedly determine the outcome of this game is Saints’ Michael Thomas against Vikings’ Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes has allowed an 84.3 CMP% in coverage this season which is the 3rd-highest allowed by a CB in a season since 2007 (min. 50 tgt). With Drew Brees having been under pressure on only 19% of his dropbacks this season (2nd-lowest in NFL) & Michael Thomas rewriting the record books at the wideout position, this Saints offense looks primed to score 34+ points in their 5th straight game.
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
As for the Vikings offense, Kirk Cousins inconsistency is going to hurt them. Cousins is 7-16 (.304 win pct) in primetime and playoff games in his career! Perhaps the addition of running back, Dalvin Cook will make this offense two-dimensional… not so fast! The Saints defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 42 straight games, including playoffs (longest active streak in NFL). With Cousins likely facing an uphill battle against the scariest looking wild card team, I don’t see the Vikings moving on to the Divisional round. I got the Saints headed to Lambeau to take on Rodgers’ & the Pack!
SCORE: 36-27, Saints Win.
Seahawks [5 seed] @ Eagles [4 seed]
Is it crazy to think that the Eagles are going to win this football game? Yes. Yes it is. Is it possible that the Eagles can win this football game? Yes. Yes it is. Will they win this football game? Nope!
Yeah okay, I ruined the build up to the game pick but I think we believe in Philly too much! I have the utmost respect for Carson Wentz & the season that he is having. Unfortunately, it takes a team to win those 60 minutes. Not just the quarterback! Quite frankly, even if it came down to the quarterbacks, I’m flying high with Seahawks’ Russell Wilson! Wilson has yet to lose a game against Wentz (3-0 record).
Sports illustrated
Despite my blatant choice in picking the Hawks’ I don’t believe Wentz is going to make it easy on this defense. With a depleted WR core, tight end is a key position to keep Philly in the game. In fact, the Eagles had the 3rd-most rec yards by TEs in a single season in the Super Bowl era. The Seahawks allowed the 2nd-most rec yds to opposing TEs this season! Safe to say that the Eagles aerial attack is very much alive…
Something going for Philly down the stretch is their 4 game win streak to finish the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost 3 of their last 4 games after starting the season 10-2! Is there growing concern in Seattle ahead of this matchup? Yes, maybe. In fact the Seahawks are 2-4 on the road in the playoffs since Russell Wilson’s tenure began in 2012 (5-0 at home). Sure it’s not a stat line that bodes well for this Seattle team however, the Seahawks are 1 of 4 teams to win 7+ road games this season (Ravens, 49ers, Saints). I’m taking the road warrior Hawks’ in the battle of the birds! Seattle is headed to San Francisco…
