DRAFT DAY FOR DUMMIES
Every year the NFL draft is different. New prospects, new needs. This year is a bit more different than usual. An NFL Draft that was supposed to take place in Vegas on the Bellagio waterfront has unfortunately been cancelled due to the outbreak of the novel COVID-19 virus. Despite the complications this virus has caused around the world, the NFL offseason has kept the sports world entertained for the most part. From Brady’s infamous departure from New England to a new generation of talent coming into the league on 23 April 2020. Without further ado, here are your top storylines in the 2020 NFL (virtual) draft.
Burrow the Bengal…
I like to start off with perhaps the most important position in football. The quarterback. The one who tends to call the shots and be the face of the franchise. Getting the right singal-caller is pivotal in a teams success. But drafting a QB in the top 5 since 1999 says otherwise…
QBs drafted in top
5 since 1999
*statistics are for games started per ESPN
14 of 28 have a losing record*
4 have at least .600 winning percentage*
2 MVP Winners (Falcons’ Matt Ryan, Panthers’ Cam Newton)
1 Super Bowl Champ* (Giants’ Eli Manning)
2 have 5+ Pro Bowl Selections (Chargers’ Philip Rivers, Eagles’ Donovan McNabb)
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
With a top-notch quarterback class, it is important to do your research on the track record of drafting a QB with a top 5 pick. Despite that the numbers don’t lie, it’s sometimes never enough to change a person’s opinion on something. In this case it’s the Bengals. Although Cincinnati has not publicly who they are drafting with the first pick, barring a shocking development I fully expect LSU QB Joe Burrow to be the selection. So where does this leave us with the other QBs?
Miami Miracles…
The whole “tank for Tua” campaign has been quite silent since his gruesome hip injury that sidelined him for the final month of the season. Durability and injuries has been the two words most associated with the Alabama signal-caller. On the contrary, Oregon’ Justin Herbert is a great signal caller who can be consistent in the NFL. He is modest and humble characteristics make him perhaps the most coachable QB of this class (not discrediting any of the other QBs). As of early this week, multiple reports indicate that Herbert will in fact be the #2 QB drafted behind LSU’ Joe Burrow. If this is the case, I could see Miami taking Herbert and avoid the risk of drafting an injury prone Tua.
(Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
However, there’s no fun in taking the safe route. The NFL is a league filled with taking a risk. I believe that Tua is more talented than Justin Herbert and quite frankly this leads me to believe Tua is more NFL ready. With this in mind, I say the Dolphins take a risk and draft Tua. This means that Herbert could either go #6 overall to the Chargers or… can we see him drastically drop? Here’s what could happen…
Isaiah Simmons is Belichick’s last hope.
No Belichick is not a typo, just stick with me through the end of this storyline and you will see what I mean. Moving on to Isaiah Simmons! The Clemson product is perhaps one of the most versatile defensive player the draft has seen in a long time. He is not your classic plug and chug player. I do not believe he should be limited to one position for the whole game due to his versatility. The Redskins are likely going to select Ohio State’ Chase Young with the No.2 pick and I do not believe a team like the Chargers (No. 6 pick) would trade up to No. 3 (Lions) unless they had their eyes set on a quarterback that they wanted to get before Miami at No. 5. However with Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn “legitimately bullish” on QB Tyrod Taylor, maybe they pass up on a QB in the first round…
Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images
I see the Lions staying pat at No. 3 and taking the second Ohio State defender, CB Jeff Okudah. At No. 4 we see the New York Giants face a tough decision. Take Isaiah Simmons or a top offensive lineman. I previously felt like Simmons should be the pick, however, after signing former Packer’ LBs Kyler Fackrell and Blake Martinez in free agency, it’s time to address a NEED more than a WANT. I see the Giants NEEDING an offensive lineman to open lanes for RB Saquon Barkley and protect QB Daniel Jones. I fully expect the Giants to be a young well-rounded team and drafting a Simmons could jeopardize that by having an inconsistent offensive line and a system defense not being able to utilize a versatile player to his fullest potential.
GIF via https://www.tigernet.com/forum/message/Isaiah-Simmons-is-a-baller-25143277
This leads me to believe that the Chargers won’t pass up on Simmons. I believe either Tua or Herbert will be available but with Tyrod Taylor likely the starter next season, might as well improve the defensive side of the ball in division that plays the Chiefs twice a year. This would then cause Tua or Herbert to go into a draft day landslide (my guess is Herbert) as teams in the next several picks do not need a signal-caller.
7. Carolina, 8. Arizona, 9. Jacksonville, 10. Cleveland, 11. NY Jets, 12. Las Vegas, 13. San Francisco (via IND), 14. Tampa Bay, 15. Denver, 16. Atlanta, 17. Dallas, 18. Miami (via PIT), 19. Las Vegas (via CHI).
Yes you can make the argument for the Jaguars eyeing Herbert or Tua at #9 if they drop, however, after trading Nick Foles to Chicago, head coach Doug Marrone has paved the way for Minshew to prove himself as a full-season starter. Besides several rumors have emerged that the Jaguars are already on the “Tank for Trevor” mentality for the 2021 NFL Draft. Defensive back looks like the main need the Jaguars will target with the #9 pick. I decided to go up to the #19 pick and stop there because the Raiders have been inclined to add another QB to an already crowded room with Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota. Instead, I am going to get bold here. The Patriots have been named as a team to be ‘in love’ with Justin Herbert.
GIF via Pac12Network
Sitting at No. 23 is a tough position to be in so I predict a draft day trade to happen with the Patriots moving up to the No. 19 pick and drafting Herbert. Belichick can groom him for the future and continue building a winning environment because Belichick does is not about to tank the season for a guy like Trevor Lawrence. This will all be in thanks to the Chargers for passing up on Herbert in favor of Simmons
Honorable mention as a scenario: The Patriots can trade up to the 49ers No. 13 pick in exchange for the No. 23 pick along with some mid-round draft picks so another team does not try to jump ahead and nab the Oregon signal-caller.
DreamCATCHERS!
This draft is filled with big-time NFL ready talent at the WR position. Something to watch for is a flurry of wideouts taken between the No. 8 and No. 22 pick. I expect nearly half of these picks to be receivers. The question is who and where they will end up.
Starting with the Cardinals at the #8, they have been connected to Oklahoma’ Ceedee Lamb who has been referred to as the top receiver in this class (no disrespect to Alabama’ Jerry Jeudy). I believe this is a smokescreen and the Cardinals are trying to bait a team like the Raiders, 49ers, and Broncos to trade up to the #8 spot. Having Ceedee Lamb would be great, but after acquiring DeAndre Hopkins via trade, it does not seem like a logical move.
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
This would then mean that the Jets could be the first team to draft a WR with the #11 pick, however, with offensive line as a need do they pass up on a top wideout? Quite frankly if the Jets draft Ceedee Lamb with the #11 pick, that leaves Jeudy and Ruggs available for the Raiders and 49ers with the No. 12 and No. 13 pick.
The Raiders would prefer Ceedee as their top WR but if the Jets take the Oklahoma product, I expect the Raiders and 49ers to take the two Alabama wideouts respectively at No. 12 and No. 13. In another scenario, the Jets take an offensive lineman. If this is the case, I fully expect the Raiders to draft Ceedee Lamb with the No. 12 pick and the 49ers to take Jeudy with the No. 13 pick. This scenario would benefit Denver as well with the No. 15 pick as they should select the speedster, Henry Ruggs III.
GIF via ESPN
The final scenario that could shake things up is Denver finds a way to trade up to the Browns’ No. 10 pick. It’s been stated that they want Jerry Jeudy with that pick which could shake things up especially for San Francisco. If the Raiders and Jets also draft a wideout then LSU’ Justin Jefferson is a potential option the 49ers can look into. San Francisco can also trade the #13 pick to a more WR needy team like the Eagles for them to have a shot at Justin Jefferson. If SF was to stay pat at No. 13, perhaps South Carolina defensive lineman, Javon Kinlaw could be an option after trading Deforest Buckner this offseason. Besides Kinlaw has expressed interest in playing for Saleh’s stout Niner front. With the #31 pick later in the draft, targeting a guy like Baylor’ Denzel Mimms could be an option to fill in that WR need. The scenarios remain infinite for the WR position and it’s going to be intriguing to watch what the Cardinals and Jets do…
Jordan needs some Love!
Don’t worry I have not forgotten about Jordan Love and some other notable QBs in this draft class. This second wave of quarterbacks are guys I believe are not day one starters. Jordan Love has been labeled as the draft’s “wild card” as he can go anywhere from the No. 5 pick to the No. 25 pick. Based on my earlier bold prediction, the Patriots should have traded up to either the No. 13 (via SF) or No. 19 (via LV) pick to select Herbert or Tua (whichever one falls if the Chargers don’t select a QB).
Photo: Grant Halverson/Getty Images
This leads me to believe a team like the Saints could nab Drew Brees’ potential successor with the No. 24 pick. On the contrary, the NFC South is looking like the toughest division in football. With Drew Brees’ days numbered in New Orleans, could the Saints draft a defensive player/offensive lineman to create a better supporting cast to make a last-minute Super Bowl run than plan for the future?
It’s possible and if this were the case I could see Love fall 6 spots to Green Bay at No. 30 and sit behind Rodgers for the next 3-4 seasons like Rodgers did with Favre. Once again the Packers could use a WR like Baylor’ Denzel Mimms or TCU’ Jalen Reagor to help Rodgers out. It will be intriguing to see what happens with Love but I don’t see him falling out of the first-round. Moving on to the last QB I want to highlight in this article is Oklahoma’ Jalen Hurts. Sure, he might not be a day 1 starter however, I can see a plan for the Chargers. Tyrod Taylor will likely be calling the shots next season and I expect Isaiah Simmons to be their first-round pick.
GIF via OU Daily
This doesn’t mean Anthony Lynn does not have a plan… What if Love does drop to the bottom of the first-round? I would expect the Chargers to make a trade back into the first-round (maybe the Vikings’ No. 22 which is 2 spots before the Saints have a chance). The other scenario is that the Chargers wait for day 2 of the draft and take Jalen Hurts with the No. 5 pick of the second-round (No. 37 overall). Point is… the Chargers have a plan.
Welcome to the NFL…
Once everything is said and done, some of these predictions may come true, other maybe not so much. One thing I can guarantee is that each of these prolific athletes that I have mentioned will be living out their dream… playing in the NFL. From me to the 255 draft picks and to those that go undrafted. It’s a marathon not a sprint. Good luck and thank you for tuning into thefanalyst for the 2019-20 season/offseason.
Next up is the 2020-21 season…
via ESPN
