Play-in Predictions
17 May 2021
The NBA Playoffs are just around the corner but before we get ahead of ourselves, there’s more basketball left to be played. We will see another play-in type format for not only the second consecutive season but for years to come, so get used to it.
Here’s how the Play-in works: The winner between the 7th vs. 8th play-in tournament will clinch the No. 7 seed. The loser of the 7th vs. 8th play-in will then play the winner of the 9th vs. 10th play-in to determine who gets the 8th and final seed in each conference.
Eastern Conference Preview
Play-in Game 1: Hornets [10] @ Pacers [9]; May 18, 2021
Jared C. Tilton | Credit: Getty Images
This game looks like a toss-up, perhaps the most unpredictable matchup of the play-in series. Something we know is that the winner of this game will have to beat the loser of the Celtics-Wizards matchup, which I believe won’t happen. If it helps the Pacers or Hornets to sleep better at night by having the satisfaction of playing in two play-in games only to see neither of them clinches a playoff spot, then so be it. The Pacers may look better on paper, even with the absence of Caris LeVert, but the Hornets have are just as capable and have the potential to send Indiana home with a backcourt of Terry Rozier and the likely rookie of the year in LaMelo Ball.
Ultimately, I’m inclined to pick the Hornets mainly because of how electrifying their offense can get, however, it’s tough to ignore how dominant Domantas Sabonis has been in his last 10 games averaging 22.5 points, 14.1 rebounds, and 10.1 assists. On top of that, although Indiana’s 13-23 home record is alarming, the Hornets 15-21 road record isn’t as convincing enough to pull out the win. I’ll bet on the Pacers to live to see another play-in game.
Play-in Game 2: Wizards [8] @ Celtics [7]; May 18, 2021
This is certainly the most intriguing matchup of the Eastern Conference play-ins simply because of the star power in this game. I’ll blatantly predict the Wizards to win this game without a doubt. The reality of the NBA today is that you tend to need two all-stars to compete in games like this and that’s exactly what the Celtics won’t have due to the absence of Jaylen Brown. That leaves Boston’s fate in the hands of Jayson Tatum which isn’t all that bad. Here’s a look at how the two-time all-star has fared this season.
Jayson Tatum this Season
Tatum has been the Celtics’ top scoring option and will certainly need to be down the stretch with Brown out for the remainder of the season. One thing the Celtics may have on their side is a Bradley Beal with a hamstring that is not 100%. However, Boston will have to deal with the tall task of guarding Russell Westbrook every inch of the hardwood, or he will take command of the entire floor and make Boston’s defense look silly. My best guess is that he will do just that and best believe you will say the same after seeing his numbers from this past month.
The only downside to this Wizards-Celtics matchup is that the winner will have to play the Brooklyn Nets. However, it’s not like we should take the No. 1 seeded 76ers as an easy go-around either.
Final Prediction:
Wizards take the No. 7 seed setting up for a first-round matchup vs. Nets. Celtics will defeat the Pacers in the next play-in clinching the No. 8 seed setting up for a first-round matchup vs. 76ers.
Western Conference Preview
Play-in Game 1: Spurs [10] @ Grizzlies [9]; May 19, 2021
I don’t expect much to be there in this matchup. Ja Morant and the Grizzlies are far more talented than the Spurs and it would be stunning to see them lose against a team-centered around DeMar DeRozan. That is no discredit to DeRozan who has averaged 21.6 points, 6.9 assists, and 4.2 rebounds in 61 games this season, but simply the lack of a supporting cast he has will play a role. Morant can go back to back with DeRozan all game long and he will also have the help of big man Jonas Valanciunas who has averaged 17.1 points and 12.5 rebounds through in 62 games this season. On top of that, it’s worth noting that Grizzlies’ Dillon Brooks’ presence on the court is felt. Aside from Brooks averaging 17.2 PPG and shooting above 40% from the field, he can change a game defensively as well.
Pool | Credit: Getty Images
Most recently, in the season-finale, Brooks fouled out against the Warriors when the game was tied at 91 apiece. After fouling out the Warriors went on a 21-10 run to close out and take the No. 8 spot in the west play-in tournament. Regardless, expect Memphis to see another play-in as the Spurs have a big offseason coming up that includes a potential departure for DeRozan.
Play-in Game 1: Warriors [8] @ Lakers [7]; May 19, 2021
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Yes, you read that right. A synonym to that title would go something like “LeBron James vs. Stephen Curry.” But to address the biggest storyline ahead of the first-round matchups, Curry and James will meet in a play-in with the No. 7 seed on the line. Wednesday night’s meeting will be the 5th meeting in the last seven years between the two greats.
"For our paths to continue to cross in our careers is pretty unique and pretty cool," James said. "Our paths have been crossed again. It's always been a level of respect that's even beyond the game of basketball, the way I feel for Steph. Just look what he's done this year. Everybody counted him out this year. Everybody saying now that Klay is hurt, can Steph lead a team on his own, can he carry a team into the postseason, can he keep a team afloat, he's done that and more. If you're looking for MVP, if Steph is not on Golden State's team, what are we looking at? We get caught up in the record sometimes instead of just saying, 'who had the best season that year?' And Steph has had, in my opinion, the best season all year. Obviously I don't think Steph is going to get [the MVP]. ... That's another conversation. But in my eyes, he's played the best basketball all year round."
James has clearly made his case for Curry to win MVP and with good reason. The Warriors superstar is playing lights out and secured his second career scoring title becoming the oldest player to do so since Michael Jordan. So that brings about the question, is Curry’s heroics enough to take down the defending champs in a play-in? The short and blunt answer is that Curry is capable of doing anything at this point. But when it comes to this game, I believe the Lakers with James and a healthy Anthony Davis should take care of business. In fact, for the first time since the 1999-2000 season, the Lakers finished with the league's top-ranked defense. Stopping Curry is impossible, but trying to contain him is a close second and viable option.
Daniel Shirey | Credit: Getty Images
This wouldn’t be the worst situation for Golden State though. Fortunately, Curry went nuclear against the Grizzlies in the regular-season finale dropping 46 points including 9 threes giving the Warriors the No. 8 spot in the west. That win alone gives Curry and his squad a second life even if they lose to the Lakers. With Memphis likely to beat the Spurs, that will set up a rematch against the Warriors in Chase Center for the final spot in the western conference. On top of that, it will likely be far more entertaining to see a matchup between James and Chris Paul in the first round of the playoffs as long as the Lakers take care of business against Golden State. Besides, Golden State stands a better chance against the Utah Jazz compared to the Phoenix Suns in a best of seven-game series…
Final Prediction:
Lakers take the No. 7 seed setting up for a first-round matchup vs. Suns. Warriors will defeat the Grizzlies in the next play-in clinching the No. 8 seed setting up for a first-round matchup vs. Jazz.
