Best in the west
The 2020-21 NBA season tips-off its 72-game season on Dec. 22, 2020. Here’s a breakdown of playoff predictions and top storylines to watch for in the Western Conference.No. 1 seed: Los Angeles Lakers; 55-17 Record
This is a simple example of the rich get richer… literally. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kyle Kuzma all cashed in on big-time extensions to stay put in the purple and gold. Although James and Davis are the heart and soul of this Laker squad it’s tough to ignore how good the supporting cast has gotten coming off of last season’s title run.
Notable Departures: JaVale McGee, Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard and Danny Green Notable Acquisitions: Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Schroder, Marc Gasol and Wesley Matthews. 
Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press
The Lakers have improved greatly offensively with the reigning sixth-man of the year Montrezl Harrell and former Thunder guard Dennis Schroder who both should see a favorable amount of playing time with the departure of Rondo, Howard, and McGee. Here’s how Los Angeles's new pair compares to their trio last season.
2019-20 Season Avg.
Harrell and Schroder are going to compliment Frank Vogel’s game plan centered around James and Davis well. It’s going to be intriguing to see what lies ahead for Kyle Kuzma and how Wesley Matthews will fit into this scheme… especially in a competitive western conference that arguably has the most talented shooters. Regardless there is no doubt that the reigning champs should reign supreme throughout the regular season.
No. 2 Seed: Los Angeles Clippers; 51-21 Record
Predicting the No. 2 seed in the west is very tough to do for a lot of reasons. Believe me, you aren’t the only one that thinks the Clippers are the epitome of being ‘pretenders’ not ‘contenders’. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that they are ready to prove themselves to the league. It’s not so far fetched to believe that as Kawhi Leonard is as good as it gets at the forward position and Paul George will prove to be one of the better number two’s this season.
Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press
The most notable departure from the Clippers offseason comes from the sidelines as head coach Doc Rivers was relieved of his duties after nearly two decades in Los Angeles. Rivers is now headed out East to Philadelphia to work with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Meanwhile, former Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue was promoted from his assistant coaching job within the Clippers organization to the head coaching position. Lue is most famously known for coaching the 2016 Cavaliers team that mounted a historic 3-1 comeback against the 73-9 Warriors in the NBA Finals. That Cavalier team notably had LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, so Lue is no stranger to coaching some of the game’s biggest stars.
However, the Clippers still have a glaring need for a true playmaker at the point guard position as Patrick Beverley is known more for his talking and defense than offensive ability. Through 51 games last season, Beverley averaged an underwhelming 7.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 3.2 APG. That means it’s up to George and Leonard to make plays all year long with a supporting cast that’s arguably worse than last season.
Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Los Angeles let big man Montrezl Harrell jump over the pond to the purple and gold, however, they signed former Raptor Serge Ibaka who averaged 15.1 PPG and 8.2 RPG through 55 games last season. Despite an underwhelming offseason, I expect the Clippers to be as good if not better than last season because of how the duo is going to be utilized in Lue’s system. In fact, Lue plans to have Leonard emulate the art of the midrange similar to how Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant did. The Clippers’ offense will feature Leonard playing in a lot more triangle sets as Lue has studied the midrange approaches of Jordan and Bryant in such offensive looks.
Meanwhile, it’s revenge season for Paul George. The Clippers awarded George a massive 4-year extension worth $190M and he knows the only way to pay his hometown franchise back is by bringing home the Larry O’Brien trophy. Fortunately, George seems to be in a better headspace and is working alongside his trainer from his final year in Oklahoma City (2018-19 season) in which he was a runner-up for the MVP. Here’s a look at how his numbers from that season compared to his first year as a Clipper.
Paul George Season Stats
It’s worth noting that George’s statistics from the 2018-19 season were through 77 games compared to a mere 48 games of play last season. If George can borderline replicate that 2018-19 MVP campaign, I like the Clippers to be a threat as one of the top seeds in the Western Conference.
No. 3 Seed: Portland Trail Blazers; 48-24 Record
I absolutely love what’s going on in Portland. Damian Lillard continues to put up monster numbers and is arguably the most dangerous shooter in the league if he gets hot (Yes Warrior fans, I know Stephen Curry is back). Just to show you how efficient “Dame Time” has been, here’s a breakdown of his field goal percentage through the years…
Damian Lillard Career FG%
The numbers speak for themselves and to add fuel to this fire, Portland traded for Robert Covington this past offseason giving the Blazers just a bit more talent on both sides of the ball. That is no discredit to CJ McCollum, however, through the years Portland has lacked depth outside of Lillard and McCollum when it comes to shooting the midrange and from beyond the arc.
Now let’s not forget Portland has brought back some strong veteran presence in Rodney Hood and the timeless Carmelo Anthony. The two guards/forwards offer the Blazers much needed depth as two-way players to compliment what Lillard and McCollum already have. On top of that, the Blazers also welcome back a pair of big men in Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins after injury-plagued seasons. Nurkic averaged 15.6 PPG and 10.4 RPG during his last full season healthy (2018-19, 72 games).
Abbie Parr/Getty Images
Meanwhile, Collins is a nice rotational player but could split minutes with the team’s offseason addition, Derrick Jones Jr. The reigning dunk champ of the year is certainly going to bring some creativity for this Blazers offense in the paint that could go a long way this season.
No. 4 Seed: Denver Nuggets; 47-25 Record
It’s fair to say the Nuggets can and should be the No. 3 seed, however, it’s tough for me to do that until I see how well the team utilizes Michael Porter Jr.’s skill set. Once considered a potential No. 1 pick, Porter Jr. showed glimpses of consistency averaging 11.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 0.8 assists through 19 games in the 2020 NBA playoffs.
After all, this is Nuggets basketball and that means it’s Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic time. Certainly in the discussion as the best duo in the league, Murray and Jokic were the centerpieces of the Nuggets’ historic playoff run, overcoming not one, but two 3-1 leads! Head coach Michael Malone does a phenomenal job of utilizing both players’ skill sets to their fullest potential and I’m confident he will do the same for Porter Jr. this year.
Ashley Landis/Associated Press
It’s worth noting that the departure of power forward Jerami Grant could hurt Denver in the opening few games, but it’s going to be intriguing what they will do to replace or better yet improve when it comes to rebounding and playing defense in the paint. Now might be a good time to mention Bol Bol who appeared in a mere 7 games last season, but could prove to be a pivotal part of this Nuggets team heading into this year.
In addition to Bol Bol, Denver has veteran Paul Millsap returning on a one-year deal. The big manpower forward averaged 11.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.6 assists through 51 games in the 2019-20 NBA season. Depending on what Malone has up his sleeve for Bol Bol, expect Milsap to see a favorable number of minutes to open the season…
No. 5 Seed: Golden State Warriors; 45-27 Record
The wait is over Warrior fans. I’ve got the 5x NBA Champs taking the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. It’s beyond a fair evaluation as to why they are this low (or perhaps high). To address the elephant in the room, Steph Curry is back in action ready to lead a young and diverse squad to the postseason once again following a year of heartbreak.
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Golden State has gone through a lot to get to where they are heading into this season… especially Klay Thompson. The sharpshooter missed all of 2019-20 due to a torn ACL he suffered during the 2019 NBA Finals vs. Raptors. Thompson battled back and was making steady progress only to see himself suffer another season-ending injury… this time a torn Achilles. As heartbroken as the Warriors were, they knew they had to find a way to fill in that backcourt alongside Curry. That’s where Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. come into play. Both of these guards/forwards share the court together in the starting five alongside defensive juggernaut Draymond Green and No. 2 pick James Wiseman.
Although nobody could do anything to replace Klay Thompson’s production alongside Curry, head coach Steve Kerr is trying to implement a new type of approach with this starting lineup. Here’s a closer look at how Oubre Jr. and Wiggins can compensate for Thompson’s absence on the court. (*Stats based on last healthy season of play).
Averages Comparison
Nearly identical statistics to Thompson bodes well for the Warriors, however, the lack of three-point efficiency could be a weak point for the Warriors. Although Curry looks to go a tear from all areas of the floor, it’s tough to not ignore Oubre Jr.’s 35.2 3-point percentage and Wiggins’ 33.2 3-point percentage. Regardless, I expected Golden State to look like a more physical team playing traditional basketball inside the paint with Curry doing what he does best… splash!
No. 6 Seed: Houston Rockets; 43-29 Record
First and foremost, this ranking is rather generous to the Rockets based on all the drama around a potential James Harden trade. So if Harden is traded or not, one thing is for sure… the Rockets will have star talent on this team regardless. After an eventful offseason of cleaning house with head coach Mike D’Antoni and general manager Daryl Morey being relieved of their duties.
Eric Gay/Associated Press
Then the Rockets went on to hire former Mavericks assistant coach, Stephen Silas as head coach and traded all-star guard Russell Westbrook to the nation’s capital in exchange for guard John Wall. A gutsy move indeed, but one Houston was willing to make as their situation with Harden has gone downhill day by day since their playoff exit to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Houston is going to have a revamped identity centering around Harden despite how disgruntled he is with his current situation. Here’s a look at just how dominant the 3x scoring champ has been in his time as a Rocket
James Harden Career PPG
Despite the beautiful array of colors, the numbers illustrate just how consistent Harden has been a year in and year out. If Harden can learn to embrace his supporting cast this season, the Rockets can be a top-4 seed, however, it seems like there has been a lot of miscommunication and dysfunction within the organization off-late. It would be foolish to think that it' won’t be something that will impact this team on the court.
In the off-chance Harden is traded, expect a haul of a return in what should be a blockbuster deal, potentially involving three teams. In fact, there have been rumors of the Celtics and Raptors lining up offers centered around Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam respectively. That would leave John Wall alongside (potentially) another superstar in addition to a pair of versatile big men in Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins. On top of that, it’s worth noting that PJ Tucker could be on the move via trade as well. It’s just a question of the Rockets’ willingness to win now or accumulate draft picks for the future. My best guess is a combination of both keeping them slap in the middle of the playoff race.
No. 7 Seed: Dallas Mavericks; 42-30 Record
At No. 7 comes the other Texas team… the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs are coming off their first postseason run since 2016 so it’s safe to say last year was a success. However, this is just the beginning for the Mavs. It all starts with 21-year-old Luka Doncic who took a big leap forward in his sophomore season and continues to build on that heading into year three. Here’s a look at the star guard’s numbers since getting drafted.
Luka Doncic Season Avg.
Doncic continues to excel all across the floor and there is no denying that he will lead this team to the playoffs. The only concern with this squad is a slow start to the season. With Seth Curry getting traded to Philadelphia in exchange for Josh Richardson, it’s going to take time for Richardson to mesh well into a backcourt that Doncic has sole control over. On top of that, versatile big man Kristaps Porzingis is recovering from knee surgery and his health remains a big question mark.
Porzingis is targeting Jan. 1 as his return date, however, that’s subject to change as it’s in the team’s best interest to not rush him back in too fast. Till then expect key role players like Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway to compensate on the scoring front and keep Dallas on the radar early on. When Porzingis does return, the league should worry as he averaged 20.4 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists through 57 games last season.
No. 8 Seed: Phoenix Suns; 40-32 Record
The Suns are a playoff team and I refuse to believe otherwise. The reasoning? Chris Paul. The 35-year-old veteran is beyond capable of uplifting a team to relevancy like he did last year with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Prior to breaking down the upside Phoenix has heading into next season here’s an overview of their eventful offseason.
Notable Departures: Ricky Rubio, Aron Baynes and Kelly Oubre Notable Acquisitions: Chris Paul and Jae Crowder
Rick Scuteri/Associated Press
Although the Suns lost Ricky Rubio and kelly Oubre Jr. it’s nothing they can’t overcome. The acquisition of Chris Paul allows De’Andre Ayton to elevate his game to a whole new level running borderline unstoppable pick-and-rolls and let’s not forget how lethal Devin Booker is. Paul is going to space the floor extremely well for the Suns which will allow young players like Cam Johnson to develop as well.
Every night Paul, Booker, and Ayton have the ability to each put up a double-double which could make this trio extremely tough to guard down the stretch. The biggest issue for this Suns team is a defense as they haven’t been top-10 defensively in 18 years! It’s still a weak link that Paul and the Suns can overcome as the season progresses.
Honorable Mentions
9. New Orleans Pelicans
Believe me, I am just as uncomfortable as you are seeing the Pelicans outside of the playoff picture. There’s no denying that New Orleans is beyond talented to be a playoff team, especially with a healthy Zion Williamson and the hiring of head coach Stan Van Gundy. It’s worth mentioning Brandon Ingram continues to be the centerpiece of this Pelican squad and the acquisition of big man Steven Adams is going to compliment Lonzo Ball and Williamson very well.
Jason Miller/Getty Images
However, I’m calling it as I see it and it’s tough to see Chris Paul and the Suns get knocked out especially after Paul led a far less talented Thunder team to the playoffs last season. It would not surprise me if the Pelicans do sneak in, but it will not be anything higher than the No. 7 seed.
10. Utah Jazz
Other than Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, I don’t trust anyone on the Jazz to propel this team to a playoff spot. Mike Conley has been an underwhelming pairing alongside Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson is a guy that comes off the bench for Utah. That leaves Bojan Bogdanovic who is coming back from a wrist injury that sidelined him prior to the NBA restart in Orlando. Bogdanovic averaged 20.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists through those 63 games last season. He sure is a bright spot on this team, but not enough to push the Jazz over either of the 9 teams mentioned ahead…
11. Memphis Grizzlies, 12. Minnesota Timberwolves
I’ve grouped both of these squads together as an honorable mention because they share similar strengths and weaknesses. There’s no denying that both of these teams are going to be electrifying to watch, however, it could go so many different ways for both squads.
Brandon Dill | Credit: AP
Memphis: Ja Morant is the future, but a non-existent supporting cast outside of Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr. (and maybe Jonas Valanciunas) is something that doesn’t bode well for this team down the stretch. It’s going to be tough to keep up with the far more experienced and talented squads in the west.
Minnesota: They look great on paper, but how will Anthony Edwards fit into this offense? Will that affect D’Angelo Russell’s play or Karl Anthony-Towns as well? Too many unknowns lead me to believe the Timberwolves will underperform this season
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